Here is Hoping!

Most of your Blogger’s readers should by now be aware of his disapproval of Benazir Bhutto. But that should not detract from his major bugbear – the ruthless military dictatorship in Pakistan. After all, Onlooker is, if nothing else, a democrat by creed and by conviction.

A country belongs to its entire people and not just to its self-aggrandizing elites – military officers, bureaucrats, feudal landowners, and business magnates and senior executives – who consist of less than 1% of Pakistan’s population.

Simply put it is time that the battered and bruised people of Pakistan had their say.

So if Benazir Bhutto’s arrival in Pakistan helps destabilise Musharraf and his corrupt, power-obsessed cronies I am all for it.

So along with many others I am counting the crowds. The more the better!

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ADDENDUM

At 12:09 am there were two horrific bomb explosions as Benazir Bhutto's vehicle passed the Karsaz area of Drigh Road. While Bhutto was rushed off to the safety of Bilawal House, it is reported that there are some sixty dead and over a hundred injured.

Senior PPP party members were quick to blame the regime's secret agencies for carrying out these blasts. A successful return for Benazir Bhutto does threaten the Musharraf regime, so these accusations do have a logical basis, particularly when these agencies are known for carrying out such incidents.

However, it could also have been carried out by South Waziristan's Baitullah Mehsud's men or some other extremists.

With elections not far in the future, preventing Benazir Bhutto from addressing large gatherings and other public activities, also makes a lot of sense if one happens to be a die-hard regime supporter.

The next few days will reveal if she now takes shelter within Bilawal House – as her opponents would wish – or continues with her self-proclaimed mission of "bringing about democracy in Pakistan".

Readers I must confess the death and injury of so many innocents makes me sick to my stomach. All I can do is simply curse the callous bastards who carried it out.

Musharraf phones Benazir himself

Newsweek comes out this week revealing how anxious Musharraf has really become.

Quoting sources from both sides of the political divide, Newsweek reports that a frantic Musharraf has telephoned Benazir Bhutto at least three times. Apparently this time desperation has made him seek her out directly rather than relying on his aides.

Here is an excerpt:

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April 30, 2007, Newsweek, U.S. Edition

Musharraf's Secret Deal
By Zahid Hussain and Ron Moreau

One of America's most crucial allies against Al Qaeda is bargaining for his political life. Public opposition to Pakistan's autocratic leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has grown so fierce that he's secretly reaching out to a longtime enemy of his military rule: exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. According to sources close to both sides who cannot be named because of the sensitivity of the ongoing talks, Musharraf has telephoned Bhutto at least three times.

Benazir Bhutto
Pakistan
Musharraf

Finally at Loggerheads?

After two months of public utterings from his minions, the man has finally spoken for himself. Musharraf has at long last officially confirmed what had already become common knowledge.

As the Daily Times reported this Tuesday (20th February, 2007)

President General Pervez Musharraf finally told a TV channel yesterday that he would seek re-election by the current assemblies and not by the new assemblies after the 2007 general elections.

One can surmise that the talks between Musharraf’s intelligence agents and Benazir Bhutto have reached a stalemate.

Browbeating her with the Swiss money laundering case, Musharraf evidently believed that he would eventually get his way. Sadly Benazir would have quite likely conceded on the General’s ‘Uniform Issue’ but the idea of a surrogate prime minister from the PPP proved a bridge too far – the idea is an obvious anathema to her.

Military rulers traditionally exploit the weaknesses of the political forces and attempt to divide and fragment them. Not surprisingly therefore one of the conditions believed to have been imposed on Benazir for the continuance of these secret parleys was that she would abstain from participating in any opposition roundtable meeting.

Consequently it does not come as a surprise that for weeks Benazir had been prevaricating on the subject of attending the Nawaz Sharif organized opposition summit in London. Suddenly all this has changed.

As your Blogger adamantly maintains, there is no such thing as a coincidence in the murky world of Pakistani power shenanigans.

So the day that Musharraf finally came clean about his re-election plans on TV was the very same day it was announced that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif would co-chair the March 24-25 all-party conference in London.

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In common with all military rulers Musharraf has come to enjoy the trappings of power and has no intention of letting go. Rumour has it that the grisly model of Hosni Mubarik, who has reigned over Egypt since 1982, is one that he wishes to emulate. Sadly for Musharraf, your Blogger stoutly contends that the Pakistanis will not prove to be as compliant as the poor downtrodden Egyptians.

As Dr. Hasan-Askari Rizvi noted nearly a month ago in the Daily Times:

If President Pervez Musharraf opts for this strategy, in total disregard of constitutional and ethical considerations, Pakistan will be faced with a head-on collision between the pro-and anti-Musharraf elements.

Such a confrontation will undermine the political interests of both General Pervez Musharraf and the opposition. It will also have negative ramifications for Pakistan’s political credibility at the global level.

Five years ago, Musharraf orchestrated a farcical referendum to prolong his self-imposed presidency. Now he is insisting on another ludicrous scenario whereby the present outgoing national and provincial assemblies ‘will re-elect’ him to a new five-year term as president

To my mind seven years of military rule has created a pressure-cooker environment. What Pakistanis (with the exception of the profiteering elite) require is a safety valve. If it is not given to them via the ballot box, there is a looming prospect of violent urban disturbances.

Pakistan

Mush & Pinky – The New Dance Partners?

Benazir Bhutto is known for her survivalist instincts and pursuit of self-interest. As your Blogger has been suggesting in recent months, the PPP leader has been surreptitiously engaged in negotiations with Musharraf’s envoys to save her skin from the Swiss Courts, who have found her and Asif Zardari guilty of money laundering.

Having appealed the verdict of the Swiss lower court, she now finds herself facing an additional charge of aggravated money laundering, which carries a maximum sentence of five years in jail as well as a fine of about one million Swiss francs if found guilty. (See Blog: Dancing Peacocks & the Quaking Lady)

The killing of Akbar Bugti provided a unique opportunity to take down Musharraf’s democratic façade by a mass resignation of opposition members in the assemblies. Benazir’s decision not to confront the regime when it was momentarily at its weakest, clanged bells loudly for her newfound policy of appeasement.

For this ‘good’ behaviour she has now been apparently rewarded - the Swiss Court had suddenly adjourned its 26th September hearing at the request of the government of Pakistan. So far, quite interestingly, no new date has been set for a future hearing.

But that is not the end of her problems. Yesterday a UK High Court dismissed Asif Zardari’s application to set aside the Pakistan government’s action against him which accuses Zardari of having purchased Rockwood Estate in Surrey with money obtained by corruption.

The UK judge held, in his 49 page judgment, that “Zardari had concealed his ownership of Rockwood Surrey Palace and now it is time for him to show that the Surrey Palace was not purchased with corruption money” adding that there was a reasonable chance that the Pakistan government would be able to prove its case that the Rockwood Mansion was purchased by Asif Zardari and Benazir Bhutto using money obtained from corruption.

It goes without saying that the noose is fairly tight around her throat these days.

Now if Benazir Bhutto concedes to Musharraf on the vital issue of the uniform – which she is likely to do – then she will be jettisoning the much- hyped ‘Charter of Democracy’ to the toilet bowl of political history. By disavowing on her publicly stated commitment she runs the risk of being exposed as a politician devoid of any shred of principle or integrity.

But then what else is new?
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And now onto Musharraf.

After seven years of verbal abusing Benazir Bhutto at every turn, he will have to swallow his words.

It is an obvious sign of his political weakness.

Musharraf, like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif before him, seems now to be purely motivated by the desire of clinging to power. Gone are his heady days of ‘Pakistan First’. Like all military dictators he has come to enjoy the trappings of power, so now it is all about ‘Musharraf First’.

While there has been criticism from the US and its allies for Musharraf's rejection of democratic practices and the marginalization of the mainstream forces in Pakistan, the military strongman has also reached the end of the track with his dependence on the religious right, which has helped prop his regime in power these past few years. The failure of the Hudood Amendment bill has widely exposed Musharraf’s political inability to ‘walk the walk’.

Another obvious reality that may finally dawned on the General is that he is no longer popular. Reality states that the 2007 general elections can be won by him only through massive and blatant pre-rigging (which is already underway (See Blog: The Coming Farce is Already Upon Us... ). But the consequence of winning this election dishonestly presents the great unknown.

As an Op-Ed commentator noted:

Given the Talibanisation of tribal areas, and extension of Taliban’s influence in the adjoining settled districts, continuing military operation and insurgency in the Baloch areas, deepening alienation of Sindhis, sustenance of jihadi and sectarian outfits, overall exclusion and sufferings of the general masses and increasing isolation of and resentment against the military rule, Pakistan presents a volcanic situation that can potentially burst out in many directions and at numerous levels.

Rigging of the 2007 elections could possibly set off a mass protest movement that could quickly get out of the control of the democratic forces and pass into the hands of organized extremists, ensuing nationwide mayhem and chaos.

Not only will such an event weaken the General in the eyes of his twin constituencies (the mentor in Washington and his own generals) but as night follows day, any errosion in Musharraf’s political power will also lead the famed turncoats that comprise tha PML (Q) to desert him without a second glance.

But all that is in the possible future. To prevent this from becoming a reality the move to bring PPP back in the political fold will ensure Musharraf’s prolonged stay in power, providing he keeps his uniform.

The unusual but not unexpected headline of the day is from The Daily Times: Coalition Government with PPP possible – Ch. Shujaat Hussain.

Indeed these are deperate times for some desperate people!

Pakistan

Dancing Peacocks & the Quaking Lady

Shortly after Bugti’s killing if all the opposition parties had resigned in masse from the national and provincial assemblies, the ‘democratic’ façade would have toppled. This would have led to the political demise of PML(Q) and Musharraf, in that order.

But this has not happened and it is pertinent to ask why?

I believe it is because of the action and inaction of two political parties.

The Dancing Peacocks of the MMA.
Never have Maulana Fazlur Rahman and his Jamiat-ul-Ulama-i-Islam (JUI) had it so good. As the official leader of the opposition in parliament Fazlur Rehman has relished the weight the post has given him in the public eye. And his party men continue to enjoy the power and perks of MMA ministries in two provinces which were provided to them by the rigged 2002 election.

Having announced their intention resign from the assemblies as a protest against the Bugti’s killing, the MMA quickly backtracked. Then they pegged their resignations on the Hudood Amendment Bill and milked the issue for what its worth.

Currently the JUI crowd see themselves to be in a win-win position. If they prevent the modification of the monstrous Hudood laws against women, they will project themselves as champions of religion. If they fail in their mission and then resign, they will then portray themselves as political martyrs to the insidious forces of secularism.

In the meantime their provincial ministers, particularly in Balochistan, are raking it in. Money, apparently, has no religion.

The Quaking Lady
Don’t believe the PPP when they say that the Swiss case against Benazir Bhutto (and Asif Zardari) is political eyewash. It isn’t and the lady knows it.

The evidence against Benazir Bhutto and her spouse was strong enough to convict her in July 2003 of money laundering (the charge of corruption was not included as the funds had been placed in Geneva banks prior to the recent enactment of Swiss anti-corruption legislation) by Swiss Magistrate, Daniel Devaud.

Benazir Bhutto appealed the case. Unfortunately for her now there is an additional charge of aggravated money laundering which carries a maximum sentence of five years in jail as well as a fine of about one million Swiss francs if Bhutto is found guilty.

While she is trying to drag out the hearing as long as possible, time is, nevertheless, against her.

Under pressure – despite the so-called Charter of Democracy – it is widely believed she is in secret contact with Musharraf’s emissaries.

Musharraf is obviously keeping his options open. If the plans for the heavily rigged 2007 elections come awry, then he can do a deal with Benazir Bhutto and prolong his stint in power.

Previously Interpol had issued Red Corner notices on the two at the instance of Pakistan government some months ago. That, however, was more of an advisory than a warrant for arrest.

Last week the District and Sessions Court in Islamabad ordered officials to issue the warrants to the couple through Interpol The latest court ruling may help the government to issue arrest warrants through Interpol, in which case Benazir, who lives in Dubai and London in self-exile, may face arrest and extradition.

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To prevent the MMA and the PPP from resigning from the Assemblies it is a case of desperately offered carrots for the MMA and the brandishing of a stout stick at Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan

The Timebomb Begins to Tick Louder

Two months ago when I wrote about the impending political cataclysm that is facing Benazir Bhutto and her husband (‘A Damoclean Sword that continues to swing’) I overlooked a significant piece of detail which I had been unaware of and here it is: the couple now face an additional charge of aggravated money laudering which has even more serious consequences.

"Geneva: Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto now faces more severe money laundering charges against her in Switzerland, paving the way for her trial before a Swiss jury, legal officials and lawyers said Thursday.

Geneva investigating magistrate Christine Junod said she had formally charged Bhutto with aggravated money laundering at a hearing on Wednesday, marking a step up from the simple money laundering case first opened in 1997.
"The legal qualification of laundering can be made in this way when the amount thought to have been laundered, in this case about 12 million dollars, is high enough," Junod told the Swiss news agency ATS.
Legal sources said the charge carries a stiffer penalty and also extends the statute of limitations from about seven years to 15 years for the former Pakistani prime minister, who was forced out of office in 1996. Once the examining process is completed, the case must be tried in court by a jury. It carries a maximum sentence of five years in jail as well as a fine of about one million Swiss francs if Bhutto is found guilty. "

Under Swiss law the Examining Magistrate has now to make a pronouncement on this additional new charge of aggravated money laundering. The Examining Magistrate therefore summoned the couple to Geneva for a court hearing set for 15th June 2005 to commence preparatory investigation on the new charge.

Benazir Bhutto’s lawyer, Alec Reymond, petitioned for a delay offering the following explanation:
Mrs. Bhutto has to remain in Dubai for obligations of a familial nature until 25th June, date from which she will start a round of conferences abroad which has been organized for a very long time.” And that she will be entirely at the court’s disposal during the weeks of 2nd to 5th August and from 5th to 9th September.”

Asif Zardari’s lawyer, Saverio Lembo, also petitioned for a delay for the following reason:
Because of his ‘heart attack and subsequent angioplasty’ Zardari’s doctors has instructed him to stay in bed for three weeks and also advised him not to carry out long journeys with in the next six months.

While the Swiss Magistrate grudgingly postponed the hearing to 13 July, she made it clear “there will not be any other postponement of hearing apart from the one accepted today”

She also reminded Benazir Bhutto that obeying the demands of justice was significantly more important than participating in a cycle of conferences. She also mentioned that she was keeping track of all the recent travel activities of Asif Zaradari.

I wonder what comes next?

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Pakistan

A Damoclean Sword that continues to swing

(As most know) in July 2003 a Swiss Examining Magistrate, Daniel Devaud, convicted Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari of money laundering - the charge of corruption was not included as the funds had been placed in Geneva banks prior to the recent enactment of Swiss anti-corruption legislation.

Daniel Devaud sentenced them to a six-month suspended jail term, fined them $50,000 each and ordered they pay more than $2m to the Pakistani Government. He said they had illegally deposited millions of dollars in accounts in Switzerland, and ordered the money be returned to Pakistan.

To some the six-month suspended sentence may seem light for such serious offences, but they were the maximum the magistrate could legally impose in his capacity as a junior judge.

In a bid to avoid public opprobrium the couple appealed to a higher court and have thereby exposed themselves to the risk of longer sentences and tougher sanctions being imposed by a superior court.

On appeal the magistrate’s verdict was challenged simply on the basis of some legal technicalities and no effort was made to dispute any part of the overwhelming documentary evidence dredged up against them in the lower court.

In November 2003, the three judges of the Tribunal de Police dismissed all of the technical objections, while noting: ‘In any case, to the extent that the accused were to be found guilty, it is doubtful that a prison term of less than 18 months could be considered.’

However, on a point of law these judges declared themselves incompetent to try the case and following due Swiss legal procedure referred the case directly to the Swiss Attorney General.

Now according to legal experts the Swiss attorney general has three options open to him:
- Move the trial to a higher court
- Prosecute the couple himself on the basis of the established evidence.
- Order a fresh investigation.

The third option seems unlikely as the legality of the evidence presented in the lower court has never been questioned.

Sixteen months have elapsed and it is probable that the Swiss attorney general could announce his decision any day now. And, despite the claims of PPP’s propagandists, the future does not bode too well for BB & Co.

If the Swiss courts sentence BB and spouse to a prolonged spell in prison, no one, apart from her most biased die-hard and illiterate supporters, would give the slightest credence to any allegation of ‘political victimisation’. Unlike ours, the Swiss legal system is highly respected and completely above board.

And so, you might notice members of the regime - like Shaikh Rashid - when asked about PPP's potential threat to their PML (Chumvha Group) smirking on TV, all the while keeping their grubby fingers crossed behind their backs hoping that the judges in Geneva will come through for them.
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